Is Turkey at war with America in Syria?

Letters from O'Brien #72

Dear Mr Smith,

I am once again writing to you, as a follow up on my previous letter regarding the Syria issue. I will keep this one brief— I hope.

I just wanted to touch on something I unfortunately had to leave as a footnote in my previous letter (on the day Damascus fell), and that was my belief that Turkey was going to come into conflict or tension with Israel and America in Syria.

Well, after just a few days it seems we are seeing Turkey doubling down against US and Israeli backed rebel forces in the northern and eastern parts of Syria.

CLASHES AND CONFLICT

Turkey has launched an aerial campaign against US backed Kurdish fighters in the north and northeast. They are doing this both in direct engagement using their air force, and through their most effective regional proxy, the SNA.

They have several targets, but the primary clashes are occurring between the SNA, and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are a Kurdish revolutionary group. Thus far the outcome is not clear, although with the backing of Turkish air power the SNA likely have the advantage.

What really matters is the dynamic at play. Turkey will not negotiate with Kurdish groups. Turkey will never allow a Kurdish state to form on their border unless forced to. For context, some of these Kurdish groups are not mere ‘freedom fighters’, they are actual terrorist groups who have taken part in bombings and other mass casualty events in and around Turkey.

The three major Kurdish groups - the SDF, the PKK, and the PYD - all want territorial gains in Kurdistan. This is such an inflammatory topic in the region that Turkey has basically gone all in to prevent this; for example the other day it was reported that either Turkey or Turkish proxies shot down an American MQ-9 Reaper drone as soon as it was spotted. Presumably this was a show of force against anyone willing to aid the Kurds - even if that backer is America.

Erdogan has reiterated that this is not a regional proxy war— rather in their mind it is a war against terrorists who want to kill Turks. Thus, the other day Erdogan stated that while he is committed to working towards peace in Syria, his forces will also crush the PKK and PYD ‘soon’. In other, words there will be no compromise on this issue unless forced to.

As it stands, it seems that Turkey is attempting to push back all Kurdish forces, including the SDF, far away from the Syrian-Turkish border (which the UN is arguing must stay the same) to create a buffer zone. I believe they will try and do this soon, since this is the only ‘intermediate’ period where such action can be justified and then extended as a peacekeeping measure.

At the same time, they are attempting to replicate what Israel is doing in the south; using airstrikes to knock out weapons depots, military facilities, and airbases (they recently knocked out the abandon Russian Qamishli airfield). This is to prevent Kurdish forces from seizing anything which may have logistical significance. This must all be done before an internationally recognised power transfer occurs.

In other words, Turkeys fight against Kurdish rebel groups is similar in many ways to Israel’s fight against Iranian proxies. And in the same manner, Turkey shows no willingness to back down until their goals are achieved against these forces. I think this may cause problems in the long run.

SIMILARITIES AND DISCREPANCIES

Israel and Turkey do share some mutual ambitions. For example, both support Azerbaijan. Turkey - for obvious reasons - uses the small nation as a proxy in the Caucuses, whilst Israel has certain long-term goals— chiefly they see Azerbaijan as a potential long term trading partner in the ‘new Middle East’ of the future.

Likewise, both Turkey and Israel are opponents of Armenia. Turkey dislikes Armenia for obvious historical feuds. Israel is not so clear; I remember looking into this years ago and never got a solid answer as to why Israel was anti-Armenian, but not necessarily anti-Russian. Some would joke that it is because Armenia is the oldest Christian country, or something to do with Caucasians originating from there, but I remember reading one justification from some Israeli source, because Armenia has a ‘history of antisemitism’. This is a stupid reason with no real historical basis, and I don’t believe this is the factor behind Israel’s stance, since it unnecessarily puts them at odds with Russia and the Russo-centric sphere of the east (Israel doesn’t want bad relations with China, for example).

My guess is that the primary reason for this is multifaceted. Firstly, in the long run Israel wants to use Azerbaijan for oil and other resources. Israel is also a natural opponent to Turkey, and Israel would likely struggle with a hostile Turkish state against them. Thus, because the two are so closely linked, anything Israel does in Azerbaijan has ripple effects in Turkey. Israel currently sells Azerbaijan weapons which played a critical role in the recent Nagorno Karabakh war, thus greatly increasing relations. The second reason is more geostrategic; Azerbaijan is on the gates of Iran, and both Iran and Azerbaijan are at odds with one another by proxy of Turkey. Iran is friendly with Armenia, and through Armenia it has (in some sense) access to Russia, their close ally.

Now in the short to medium term, Turkey and Azerbaijan want to remove Armenia— although this is never explicitly stated, that is the goal of these regional conflicts. If Azerbaijan even takes the south of Armenia, Iran will be cut off from their northwest link to Russia. Now Iran also obviously has access through the northwest, however I believe there is evidence that similar suspicious activity is occurring in those countries as well (Turkmenistan notably).

So, in summary, Israel and Turkey both rely on each other in the short term. This is more so true for Israel than Turkey, since Israel is in a far more ‘hostile’ position than the Turks are. Israel is already in a technical war with a regional power which can rival them (Iran) as well as an advanced proxy force who cannot directly compete but can be a serious hindrance (Hezbollah). Turkey can arguably rival Iran (in some ways), and if Turkey were not on Israel’s ‘good side’, then the pressure they also exert could be catastrophic for the IDF. This is why the hate amongst a lot of Iranian or Lebanese Arabs is strong towards Erdogan right now— because they believe he could end this conflict if he stepped in on the side of Iran, but he won’t.

However, in the long run I believe Turkey and Israel are natural rivals. Both have the shared goal of becoming regional hegemonies; Israel desires to expand its borders ‘from the Nile to the Euphrates’ in some esoteric hypothetical expansion of the originally stated Biblical borders, whilst Turkey desires to essentially build a new Ottoman Empire. Unless one of them compromises, this will likely result in direct tensions or conflict.

FUTURE TENSION

Returning to today, it remains a mystery what Turkey’s next play will be, but one can infer that they will soon come to an impasse. Right now, they clearly want to crush Kurdish rebels - which they have openly stated. Another major issue in Turkey is the massive number of Syrian immigrants, whom much of the population are at odds with. The government wants to quickly set up some sort of ‘remigration’ option to get them out of the country and back to Syria.

This ties in with another topic I discussed earlier. Israel - exactly as I predicted would happen - has now seized a strip of land going up along the south-eastern Lebanese border. This is clearly to cut off Hezbollah from the Syrian desert and pressure them to pull back north of the Litany River.

Then, Netanyahu recently stated that he wants to establish relations with the new government in Syria, on the precondition that if Iran tries to establish its presence, Israel will respond forcefully. This is all coded; essentially this means Netanyahu wants Syria to establish an Israel-aligned state that will counteract Iran and Hezbollah. This infers US intervention, or US backing of some regime that will retain power.

This was further evidenced by the recent report that the US is in close contact with both Turkey and the SDF regarding the situation in the north, and the apparent silence over the loss of a Reaper drone. I think this is because the US knows that for Israel to win in this scenario, Turkey must only be allowed to exert influence in the region if the balance of power over Syria swings more in favour of Israel than it does Turkey. At the same time, I think the US knows - just as Israel does - that they cannot go all-in on counter signalling Turkey— if the US escalates in the region by further funding Kurdish revolutionary groups, I believe Turkey will begin to swing the other way and begin aligning itself with Iran against Israel and the US. If this happens, a Turkey-Iran alliance in the region would swing the balance of power clearly away from Israel.

So anyways, this is all I have to say today. I think Turkey will soon be forced to make crucial decisions regarding its long-term ambitions and its eventual tension with Israel; they are natural rivals, and this will only be avoided if one of the two nations compromises in some way.

Sincerely yours,

O’Brien