Dear Mr Smith
Trump has, on several occasions, made the very odd assertion that if he is ever assassinated, then the US would ‘go to war with Iran’ as a retaliatory action. This provocative statement has, I believe, put a target on his head for motivated interest groups.
I think there are two primary interest groups who would want Trump assassinated, and one of them is in his own aisle. It is true that this liberal-establishment regime wants him gone for several reasons, namely that he will end that profitable war in Ukraine, he will attempt to de-escalate the EU and NATO’s war stance, and will likely seek better relationships with Russia and the Eastern nations. However, another group who may want him dead come from his very own side of the political divide. Primarily because he, and those around him, hold the key to war in the Middle East against Iran.
IRANIAN PLOT OR FALSE FLAG
I am suspicious of the entire narrative we are currently hearing about Iran. Ever since the 1990s Iran has been one of the primary long-term targets for Israel, in order for them to ‘secure the realm’, as they put it, in the Clean Break report. However, in recent years Iran has made moves to avoid open hostility with Israel and with the West. This suggests (strongly) that Iran does not want conflict, which is counter to the narrative conservative media is currently pushing.
Thus far we have seen a hesitancy from Iran to retaliate to several recent attacks; several bombings, several assassinations, and an attack on an embassy. The only ‘retaliation’ was the pre-announced show of force, in which the Iranian Revolutionary Guard launched missiles and rockets into Israel. Note that this was a show of force to politically save face; Iran announced it ahead of time, they told the US stationed in Iraq (who would naturally intercept the missiles that crossed over their airspace) and they used old models of their missiles which were easier to detect and intercept.
The US itself has attempted to normalise the situation in the region, explicitly calling on Iran not to retaliate against Israeli provocations and calling on Israel to not escalate further. The pager attack happened the day after the US sent another plea for de-escalation.
But back to the idea that Iran wants to assassinate Trump. If Iran assassinated the president of the United States (or the most likely candidate for future president), the US would respond immediately, with devastating attacks that Iran would not be able to counter. They know this, as does every country. The entire establishment on the right is currently putting pressure on Iran as well, and any assassination attempt would naturally be spun as an Iranian attack. Again, they know this, it would be suicide to even make an attempt.
A HYPOTHETICAL WAR
But let’s say that Trump was actually taken out by some assassin. What would happen next?
The first thing to consider would be pretext; and right now, right wing establishment and centrist media is pushing this idea of war with Iran. The mainstream conservative narrative now is that Iranian proxies are planning to take out Trump and commit other extreme acts across the West. The media is setting up retrospective legitimacy if something does happen (It’s propaganda 101). If there was an event or attack, the media can point the finger back at the months or years of ‘warnings’ and ‘evidence’ to justify their claims.
So, if Trump was taken out, what would happen? Regardless of who the assassin was or their motivations, I believe the conservative media would immediately push the idea that the assassin was connected to Iran in some way. We have already seen this with the previous would-be assassins, even though they were clearly not Iranian agents.
With Trump gone, his own words would be very useful, and ‘evidence’ of an Iranian plot to justify an immediate response in the Middle East. JD Vance would likely step up to lead, and given his connections with Silicon Valley, the intelligence community, and Israel, he would likely exercise all his authority to begin another major war in the Middle East.
The possibility of false flags is very high right now, and this can be seen by the medias insane attempts to suddenly run these stories about Iranian hacking, interference, and assassination plans. Whether it is a direct attack against Trump, or an attack of some magnitude against the US government, I believe any false flag would be blamed on Iran.
Oh yeah, there was also an odd statement made by Secret Service spokesperson Ronald Rowe after the golf course assassination attempt a few weeks ago. Randomly, during the press conference, Rowe said that “there could be another geopolitical event that could put the United States into a kinetic conflict, or some other issue, that may result in additional responsibilities and protectees of the Secret Service.”
What is this supposed to mean, exactly? A very odd thing to say, cryptically inferring some sort of attack that would result in a kinetic conflict, with the Secret Service having to safeguard other people? If I had to guess, I would say they are referring to a major false flag, followed by a war in the Middle East. We can only wait and see what plays out. I hope I’m wrong about all of this and there won’t be such a conflict with Iran that drawn in the West. But the indicators do seem to be pointing to such a war.
Sincerely yours,
O’Brien
As well as divert the attention away from the Wests crumbling economy. Historically a war economy has always been a good successor to a regular economy gone bad.
The likelihood of Israel doing anything to truly trigger regime change is unlikely . A pro western monarch in Iran would radically change the Middle Eastern environment and force Israeli right wingers into retreat . The current status quo is helpful for their maintaining a strong anti Islamic stance and pushing through an expansionist agenda off the back of events such as October 7th.
For this reason I personally believe we will see limited but high publicity airstrikes.
The worst case scenario an attempt at triggering massive revolt in Iran by striking the leadership at key parts of their apparatus .
The risk of another Iraq in that event is high though it be between public and state security apparatus and be very bloody and probably inconclusive. The Shah won’t be coming back anytime soon I doubt .
Too much of the status quo benefits people like Netanyahu who have formed their leadership around an enmity that will never end . Ditto the Mullahs