The west’s influence in the Caucasus is unwelcome and out of its geographical comfort zone . They will never be reliable partners for their friends in the Caucasus who only have the choice to deal with Russia , Iran and Turkey. The west cannot crash into every rivals back yard indefinitely. We are reaching a point of push back . Ukraine is the beginning of that process . Cruel but from a Russian point of view necessary .
As you say, Armenia is in a tough position geopolitically. I have not done much looking into Azerbaijan society, but I heard that (1) They are mainly secular, and (2) Exports a lot of oil to Israel. This is probably why Israel and Azerbaijan have close relations, despite being a "Muslim" country. With that being said, realistically, who can Armenia turn to? Geographically, they are in such a terrible position. You have Turkey blocking the Black Sea and Azerbaijan as a neighbour. The only power they can ally with is Russia - who is sincerely unreliable and has lost military power credibility, and also an unreliable partner. And you have Iran - who hates the West. Here's the thing: they will not get security guarantees from the West (especially NATO as a whole because of Turkey) if they don't renounce Russia, but even then, it's not a firm guarantee. So if they gamble and renounce Russia, they're taking a gamble of having no security guarantee at all!
But maybe not all hope is lost. France (who is more talk than action in my opinion), is trying to help out. But my feeling is that this is more about containing Russia than it is about helping Armenia. If that's the case, Armenia is going to suffer more: they are being used as a pawn in a political game. With no Western security guarantee, and an ever growing Russian paranoia, it is my pessimistic view that it's only a matter of time until Russia has had enough with Armenia's Western shift.
Thank you! I learned much from reading this as I knew next to nothing about Armenia but yes it seems like the US military industrial complex is trying everything and anything to maintain it’s unipolar status amidst a now multipolar world. I have listened to Putin speak naturally and unscripted with no placards required and he sounds a thoughtful articulate intelligent man who is determined to defend his country from western “interests” and who can blame him? I certainly can’t after learning what it was like in the USSR as it fractured when the wall of communism fell and why the Russians never want to experience that hell ever again. I also just recently was guided to a YouTube video of Gonzalo Lira from one year ago where he spends one full hour on the full history that led up to the Russia Ukraine war and he provides great insights into Victoria Nuland’s character and the role she played in all of this. Notice she just “retired” and he was an American citizen reporting truth from Ukraine and left to die in a Ukrainian prison just this past January with no mention of his death at all either by the Biden administration nor any of the mainstream media. Sad just sad.
The west’s influence in the Caucasus is unwelcome and out of its geographical comfort zone . They will never be reliable partners for their friends in the Caucasus who only have the choice to deal with Russia , Iran and Turkey. The west cannot crash into every rivals back yard indefinitely. We are reaching a point of push back . Ukraine is the beginning of that process . Cruel but from a Russian point of view necessary .
Good analysis, Winston. Linking today @https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/
As you say, Armenia is in a tough position geopolitically. I have not done much looking into Azerbaijan society, but I heard that (1) They are mainly secular, and (2) Exports a lot of oil to Israel. This is probably why Israel and Azerbaijan have close relations, despite being a "Muslim" country. With that being said, realistically, who can Armenia turn to? Geographically, they are in such a terrible position. You have Turkey blocking the Black Sea and Azerbaijan as a neighbour. The only power they can ally with is Russia - who is sincerely unreliable and has lost military power credibility, and also an unreliable partner. And you have Iran - who hates the West. Here's the thing: they will not get security guarantees from the West (especially NATO as a whole because of Turkey) if they don't renounce Russia, but even then, it's not a firm guarantee. So if they gamble and renounce Russia, they're taking a gamble of having no security guarantee at all!
But maybe not all hope is lost. France (who is more talk than action in my opinion), is trying to help out. But my feeling is that this is more about containing Russia than it is about helping Armenia. If that's the case, Armenia is going to suffer more: they are being used as a pawn in a political game. With no Western security guarantee, and an ever growing Russian paranoia, it is my pessimistic view that it's only a matter of time until Russia has had enough with Armenia's Western shift.
Does Azerbaijan desire any more conquest of Armenian (or other) land after taking Nagorno-Karabakh?
Thank you! I learned much from reading this as I knew next to nothing about Armenia but yes it seems like the US military industrial complex is trying everything and anything to maintain it’s unipolar status amidst a now multipolar world. I have listened to Putin speak naturally and unscripted with no placards required and he sounds a thoughtful articulate intelligent man who is determined to defend his country from western “interests” and who can blame him? I certainly can’t after learning what it was like in the USSR as it fractured when the wall of communism fell and why the Russians never want to experience that hell ever again. I also just recently was guided to a YouTube video of Gonzalo Lira from one year ago where he spends one full hour on the full history that led up to the Russia Ukraine war and he provides great insights into Victoria Nuland’s character and the role she played in all of this. Notice she just “retired” and he was an American citizen reporting truth from Ukraine and left to die in a Ukrainian prison just this past January with no mention of his death at all either by the Biden administration nor any of the mainstream media. Sad just sad.